If you understand how mnav works related to the DATs & when they should be buying and selling ETH i can explain why the news i heard is not ideal, or rather "slightly odd and maybe concerning".
When eth price goes up, bitmine/sharplink stock goes up and they can sell shares to buy eth, creating a flywheel. When eth price goes down, bitmine/sharplink stock goes down more and they should NOT be buying eth. The whole concept is for them to try to defend mNAV.
Today bitmine stock is -7%, sharplink is -14%, ETH is -2.2%.
They should both be trying to buy their own stock with cash they have to push mnav back up. Instead, i heard they are both going to be buying eth this weekend, which is not ideal. When the DATs start to go against what they're supposed to do, its not good and it could ruin market dynamics.
If ETH does not go up this weekend from their buying, or actually dumps MORE this weekend while they are buying > their stocks will gap down monday. that could lead mnav dropping even further. Its just not ideal, im not saying its over by any means. but when companies start to stray away from what they're supposed to do things could break.
Some observations per the SBET earnings this AM:
- their $600M war chest carried over from last week has been spent, as anticipated
- implied ATM harvested this week was very dry ~$50M - very weak. They have recognized their low mNAV in barely using it
- estimate them having ~$100M in cash carrying over to next week. Probably doesn't get used on the weekend
- mNAV has compressed to 1.0x - lowest ever recorded so far and re-entering Prisoner's Dilemma of how this resolves